Nomination Forecast | September

 

We are now officially under three months away from the  announcements of the nominations for the 17th Annual Black Reel Awards. Just like a tight horse race, the past month saw plenty of movement between the contenders with a new film taking its place as our frontrunner.

The turmoil on social media regarding Nate Parker’s period drama, The Birth of A Nation has diminished its Oscar chances as there has been significant pushback prior to the release of the drama in October. In addition to the swirling controversy around Parker’s personal life, there has also been a proliferation of other contenders that have emerged, including Moonlight, Hidden Figures, A United Kingdom and Loving.

As we enter into the “final quarter” of the year, which films and performances have a legitimate shot of having their names called in December?

SEE ALSO: Nomination Forecast | August

This Month’s Updates:
These projections are based on personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees over our awards history have resonated), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters), TheFilmGordon awards’ analyst currently projects…

Outstanding Film

  • FRONTRUNNERS

    Fences (Paramount)
    Hidden Figures (20th Century Fox)
    The Birth of A Nation
     (Fox Searchlight)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Loving (Focus Features)

    SPOILERS

    A United Kingdom (Pathé)
    Queen of Katwe (Walt Disney)
    Collateral Beauty (Warner Bros.)
    Southside With You (Roadside Attractions)
    Morris From America (A24)

    Outstanding TV Movie or Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
    American Crime
    (ABC)
    Confirmation (HBO)
    Roots (History)
    Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill (HBO)

    SPOILERS

    All the Way (HBO)
    Jean of the Joneses (TV One)
    Showing Roots
    (Lifetime)
    The Breaks (VH1)
    Toni Braxton: Unbreak My Heart 
    (Lifetime)

    Outstanding Independent Feature

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    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Land
    How To Tell If You’re A Douchebag
    Kicks
    Destined
    Five Nights in Maine

    SPOILERS

    Interwoven
    Halfway
    Destination: Planet Negro
    The Sin Seer

    Outstanding Actor, Motion Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Nate Parker, (The Birth of A Nation)
    Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)
    David Oyelowo (A United Kingdom)
    Will Smith (Collateral Beauty)

    SPOILERS

    Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)
    Keegan-Michael Key (Don’t Think Twice)
    Markees Christmas (Morris From America)
    Parker Sawyers (Southside With You)
    Denzel Washington (The Magnificient Seven)

    Outstanding Actor, Television Movie or Limited Series

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Courtney B. Vance (The People vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story)
    Cuba Gooding Jr. (The People vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story)
    Malachi Kirby (Roots)
    Rege Jean-Page (Roots)
    Tristan Wilds (The Breaks)

    SPOILERS

    Wesley Johnathan (Bad Dad Rehab)
    Romany Malco (Mad Dogs)
    Adrian Lester (Undercover)
    Robert Ri’chard (Bad Dad Rehab)
    Rick Gonzales (Bad Dad Rehab)

    Outstanding Actress, Motion Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Ruth Negga, (Loving)
    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
    Madina Nalwanga (Queen of Katwe)
    Tika Sumpter (Southside With You)

    SPOILERS

    Zoe Saldana (Live By Night)
    Royalty Hightower (The Fits)
    Halle Berry (Kidnap)
    Zoe Saldana (Nina)
    Monique (Interwoven)

    Outstanding Actress, Television Movie or Limited Series

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    FRONTRUNNERS

    Kerry Washington, (Confirmation)
    Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill)
    Teyonah Parris (Love Under New Management: The Miki Howard Story)
    Sophie Okonedo (Undercover)
    Taylour Paige (Jean of the Joneses)

    SPOILERS

    Afton Williamson (The Breaks)
    Laverne Cox (The Rocky Horror Picture Story)
    Uzo Azuba (Showing Roots)
    Lex Scott Davis (Toni Braxton: Unbreak My Heart)
    Sophie Okonedo (The Hallow Queen) 

    Outstanding Supporting Actor, Motion Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Colman Domingo (The Birth of A Nation)
    Andre Holland (Moonlight)
    John Legend (La La Land)

    SPOILERS

    Craig Robinson (Morris From America)
    Jovan Adepo (Fences)
    Forest Whitaker (Arrival)
    Chris Tucker (Billy Flynn’s Long Walk Homecoming)
    Mykelti Williamson (Fences)

     

    Outstanding Supporting Actor, Television Movie or Limited Series

    SterlingKbrown

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Sterling K. Brown (The People vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story)
    Wendell Pierce (Confirmation)
    Michael K. Williams (The Night Of)
    Forest Whitaker (Roots)
    Andre Benjamin (American Crime)

    SPOILERS

    Anthony Mackie (All the Way)
    Jeffrey Wright (Confirmation)
    Chad E. Coleman (Roots)
    Trevor Jackson (American Crime)
    Malachi Kirby (Black Mirror) 

    Outstanding Supporting Actress, Motion Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
    Aja Naomi King (The Birth of A Nation)
    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Janelle Monáe (Hidden Figures)
    Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)

    SPOILERS

    Janelle Monáe (Moonlight)
    Naomie Harris (Collateral Beauty)
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane)
    Danai Gurira (All Eyez On Me)
    Aunjanue Ellis (The Birth of A Nation)

    Outstanding Supporting Actress, Television Movie or Limited Series

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    FRONTRUNNERS

    Regina King (American Crime)
    Anika Noni Rose (Roots)
    Emayatzy Corinealdi (Roots)
    Angela Bassett (American Horror Story – Season 6)
    Jennifer Hudson (Hairspray Live!)

    SPOILERS

    Erica Tazel (Roots)
    Erica Ash (Jean of Joneses)
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Black Mirror)
    Aisha Hinds (All the Way)
    Sherri Shepherd (Jean of Joneses) 

    Outstanding Director, Motion Picture

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    FRONTRUNNERS

    Nate Parker (The Birth of A Nation)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Amma Assante (A United Kingdom)
    Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)

    SPOILERS

    Antoine Fuqua (The Magnificient Seven)
    Malcolm D. Lee (Barbershop: The Next Cut)
    Benny Boom (All Eyez On Me)
    Qasim Bashir (Destined)
    David Talbert (Almost Christmas)

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